The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
There's a seasonal increase in electricity demand during the summer and that somewhat favors natural gas, though the natural gas usage peak happens during the winter due to heating demand, yes.
Monthly Natural Gas Consumptions Show No Sign Of Fuel Switch [View instapost]
Supply would always miss by little since it's quite stable.
Demand, and specifically power demand, is where it's at. Your numbers were way off, and so your May numbers might also be way off. Saying that you just have to change a sign or reclassify residential demand doesn't cut it.
As for May, there are the y-o-y numbers we have U.S. Consumption - Gas Week: (5/9/12 - 5/16/12) Power 26.82%
Natural Gas Production Update: Not As Bullish As It Would Seem [View article]
Depends on how you look at it, EIA has estimates on that as well. Somewhere between 4100 and 4350 or so bcf should be correct.
Presently the likelihood is that storage capacity won't be filled up completely. Check my article here (this was written 1 month ago): http://seekingalpha.co...
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
You'll notice that ever since I started saying natural gas was going to head up, one month ago, I never said that natural gas producers were the way to take advantage of it. There are 2 reasons for this:
1) The natural gas producers had not really reflected the natural gas implosion;
2) The natural gas producers with high exposure to shale might have gotten themselves into intrinsically uneconomic positions (except with significantly higher natural gas prices).
Cheniere Energy: Who Will Lend Them The Money? [View article]
The model on my article regarding 2012 shows, with mostly conservative assumptions, that if the current substitution continues then the excess inventories will be eaten up, Up to now the model is more conservative than what's taking place in the market - for instance it allowed 75 bcf of injections per week in May, and those are running well below that threshold.
Sure, nat gas is still trading very low, but it's been climbing. It has gained around 40% since I published that article 1 month ago.
Obviously a mild summer, or even natural gas continuing to rise (!!), can destroy this rally.
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
It's not just about the cash flow. Cash flow doesn't justify it either, especially since some of it is just float.
What I'd like to know here, is why would someone add back the content and marketing expenses. And would Jeremy claim that old economy companies can capitalize those (whereas AMZN presumable can't).
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
Why do you believe that old economy has the ability to capitalize things that AMZN expenses? I didn't quite follow that logic there. I don't follow the logic of capitalizing it, either.
Monthly Natural Gas Consumptions Show No Sign Of Fuel Switch [View instapost]
We've already seen how your calculations on that regard were wrong for February, and have no reason to believe those for May will be any better (you, however, seem to have learned nothing from mssing February).
Every weekly number showed natural gas usage for power generation up more than 20% from last year, it's not very likely that the monthly number will show up as up just 14% (unless it slows down a lot for the remainder of the month)...
Anyway, the central thesis on this particular article was that LNG was too speculated and was going to trade lower when speculation died down - which already happened.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
Prices depend on mines, some are shutting down already - there's a scale of cash costs, cheaper to run mines will tend to be the last to shut, more expensive first (already happening).
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
I won't try to peg a given level as being the level at which wells are profitable, and another level at which they aren't. That varies across a lot of things, there isn't "one" value. What we do know is that rigs started going away at a given level (can't check the data on this computer) - that level is well above $3.
At $3, what you should start having, is dspatch switching back from natural gas to coal.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
444, basically it's about whether there is, or isn't, what I call "dispatch switching" from coal to natural gas.
It has to do with how the power plants that will satisfy electricity demand are selected. They are selected by economic dispatch (within a series of constraints) - the plants that are able to produce cheaper power, run first, then you get progressively more expensive plants as the power needs increases.
Now, usually the power plants that are cheaper to run are those burning coal (lets ignore nukes, hydro, etc). But natural gas fell so much that it displaced many of those coal fired plants. So instead of the coal-fired generators running and the natural gas-fired ones sitting idle for most of the time (except peaking needs), natural-gas fired generators managed to more often be the ones running while coal plants sit idle.
This is what made for the dispatch switching - less coal got used, more natural gas got used to make electricity.
This is all there is to it, it's what the industry says, it's what the numbers say, it's pretty obvious. But Mark is in complete denial and can't seem to accept it.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
Or through coal stocks and power generators using nukes (EXC, PEG), hydro, or maybe even coal. Depends on how penalized those stocks were.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
Monthly Natural Gas Consumptions Show No Sign Of Fuel Switch [View instapost]
Demand, and specifically power demand, is where it's at. Your numbers were way off, and so your May numbers might also be way off. Saying that you just have to change a sign or reclassify residential demand doesn't cut it.
As for May, there are the y-o-y numbers we have
U.S. Consumption - Gas Week: (5/9/12 - 5/16/12)
Power 26.82%
(unfortunately http://bit.ly/K37ETl is giving me an error)
U.S. Consumption - Gas Week: (4/25/12 - 5/2/12)
Power 41.30%
Natural Gas Production Update: Not As Bullish As It Would Seem [View article]
Presently the likelihood is that storage capacity won't be filled up completely. Check my article here (this was written 1 month ago): http://seekingalpha.co...
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
1) The natural gas producers had not really reflected the natural gas implosion;
2) The natural gas producers with high exposure to shale might have gotten themselves into intrinsically uneconomic positions (except with significantly higher natural gas prices).
Cheniere Energy: Who Will Lend Them The Money? [View article]
Sure, nat gas is still trading very low, but it's been climbing. It has gained around 40% since I published that article 1 month ago.
Obviously a mild summer, or even natural gas continuing to rise (!!), can destroy this rally.
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
What I'd like to know here, is why would someone add back the content and marketing expenses. And would Jeremy claim that old economy companies can capitalize those (whereas AMZN presumable can't).
Kindle Sales Plunge Made Amazon.com's Gross Margin Look Better [View article]
http://bit.ly/JHPLJF
Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
Monthly Natural Gas Consumptions Show No Sign Of Fuel Switch [View instapost]
Every weekly number showed natural gas usage for power generation up more than 20% from last year, it's not very likely that the monthly number will show up as up just 14% (unless it slows down a lot for the remainder of the month)...
Cheniere Energy: Who Will Lend Them The Money? [View article]
2012
http://bit.ly/Ii03vD
2013
http://bit.ly/MwYpg3
Anyway, the central thesis on this particular article was that LNG was too speculated and was going to trade lower when speculation died down - which already happened.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
At $3, what you should start having, is dspatch switching back from natural gas to coal.
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
It has to do with how the power plants that will satisfy electricity demand are selected. They are selected by economic dispatch (within a series of constraints) - the plants that are able to produce cheaper power, run first, then you get progressively more expensive plants as the power needs increases.
Now, usually the power plants that are cheaper to run are those burning coal (lets ignore nukes, hydro, etc). But natural gas fell so much that it displaced many of those coal fired plants. So instead of the coal-fired generators running and the natural gas-fired ones sitting idle for most of the time (except peaking needs), natural-gas fired generators managed to more often be the ones running while coal plants sit idle.
This is what made for the dispatch switching - less coal got used, more natural gas got used to make electricity.
This is all there is to it, it's what the industry says, it's what the numbers say, it's pretty obvious. But Mark is in complete denial and can't seem to accept it.