Silver: ETFs And 5 Miners Valuated For Direction [View article]
I posted this at Yahoo Finance:
The Ninnies really are close to burning down the whole house - i.e. the whole world - now.
In this corner, JPM and those in its nexus. (Not their survival. Just their annual bonuses and temporary stock prices.)
In the other corner, everyone else in the world!
I dunno. Such a hard decision to make.
Meanwhile, Cramer, Defender of DOGworld, came very close to having a massive stroke on air tonight, IMO - only the second time we have ever seen that. And some of the rest of them aren't looking much better. Green complexions, voices breaking like bar mitzvah boys.
The difference between now and 2008 is that in 2008, world leaders might not have known any better. The banks said - a little bit more, just a little bit more - and the world said, you're cutting it close, but OK, one last time.
There really is no need for that this time around.
All it will take is a little healthy censorship.
In the US media. On Fleet Street. At Zero Hedge. Threaten anyone now prone to scream Fire! in a crowded theater with whatever the heck you have to threaten them with. No Pet Hamster should be sacred, when the survival of the world economy is at stake.
Now for the mundane: PM stocks are now at their lowest ratios to the underlying metals since Leakey's Lucy was a bond trader in the Great Rift valley. And that was a long time ago.
Therefore, the risk-reward is now overwhelmingly clear, is it not? No matter how many CNBC'ers go berserk on the air.
Silver: ETFs And 5 Miners Valuated For Direction [View article]
PM Short side is out in force spouting idiocy today, with CNBC's blessing.
Every little hedge fund in the JPM nexus has mobilized its Botnet.
When cornered, snarl like a cur.
I repeat: If JPM and those in its nexus wish to get out of this with the least possible damage, the way to do it is to COMPROMISE with Gold and Silver Bulls, not act maliciously by rote.
We want "free and open markets," or we want computer games aiding the very few with the deepest pockets and the closest ties to financial media sponsors.
CNBC is acting even more irresponsibly than it did in 2008. Fleet Street - Murdochville - is, of course, off the charts.
The difference this time is that a good part of the World is trying to trade - and propagandize - against their shenanigans.
So let us see what we will see.
Gold sector leaders certainly cannot bleep around any longer: Come out forcefully pushing the role of Gold as the Stateless Currency and Mediating Currency, divorced from short-term Currency Wars and corrupt Currency traders.
We shouldn't have to go through this nonsense over and over whenever there's a Three Treasury Note Auction week.
If you are confusing Boomers with "Seniors," it is not appreciated.
The vast majority of members of the Senate and House, most senior bankers and corporate executives, and most leaders of major media companies are Baby Boomers. We Boomers, currently aged 48-66, are in what are normally the highest earning and highest achieving age bracket iin American life.
That 99 percent or so of all Boomers have suffered the past couple of decades - along with younger and older Americans - is an important untold tale of our recent American experience.
Dollar And Sense: Can Oil Turn Around In June? Here's What History Says [View article]
Oxen,
Historically, this is a weak time of year for Brent stocks, post their dividends. They tend to start to improve in September, although the very best performance usually begins again in January.
It's true, however, that this year is skewed because of geopolitics and events in Europe. No one is really sure what will happen with the embargo and how it might affect the stocks versus the underlying commodity.
Many believe the Oil Tanker stocks are beginning to look very attractive after being in the doghouse the past several years. Oil - and LNG - routes of trade are becoming longer and convoluted, as traditional patterns have already been badly disrupted. For instance, Venezuela is now speeding up its shipments to China and elsewhere in Asia and even to - not from - the Middle East. These are brand-new routes and potentially very beneficial to the shippers.
Extremist Supply-siders gave exactly the wrong advice to Candidate McCain in 2008, and they are giving exactly the wrong advice to both candidates now.
We Baby Boomers, aged 48-66 in 2012, make up one-third of the US population and by far its strongest voting bloc.
And in general, we could care less about temporary gasoline prices or other at this point very mild inflationary pressures.
We mostly care about two things: A higher stock market, since we - not the "new generation" of Facebooker Millennials - are still the majority of individual and small institutional investors and traders. . And a recovery in housing prices, since we are overwhelmingly homeowners.
Aid to small business is also nice, since we're the largest bloc of small business owners. And we do favor the Republican agenda on the market: keep capital gains taxes as low as possible and also encourage multinationals to repatriate profits with various sweeteners, in return for earmarking a substantial portion of those repatriated profits to create more domestic jobs.
The Ninnies have already started their by-rote "three Treasury auction week" Gold and Silver bashing.
But this time, it is an even worse idea than per usual.
Pretty much everyone in the world who participates in or even just follows PM markets knows that investigated in any responsible way, JPM's problems are going to lead straight to The Largest Silver Short Position in World History and the various Herculean efforts that have been needed to prevent its blowing up.
The upcoming JPM hearings and the scandal upon scandal upon scandal they are likely to provoke means that JPM and those in its extended nexus should now be working hard to BLUNT the effect of all their swaps and derivatives and somersaults and trapeze stunts which involve the interaction of currencies, bonds, and precious metals.
The Gold Bubble Is Leaking: First Quarter Supply And Demand Update [View article]
Once again: Every single bit of these stats reflects the 11-week Indian jewelers' strike and the addional couple of weeks it took to get the market back to normal.
Anyone depending on backward-looking stats is looking at the Gold market through a backward-looking lens.
Once again, you are entitled to your opinions. So am I. So is the WGC. So is Charlie Munger. And so are the Indian people.
Currency is clearly the dog - and the DOG - that wags the tails of all other markets now.
Everyone knows where I stand on both problems in currency markets and on Gold. My view of Gold is NOT that of much of the Gold establishment, if one can say there still is one, in the US and UK. But it jibes, I believe, with what most of the rest of the World - people who actually like Gold - think about Gold.
Gold is not a "Fear" sector, though it sometimes reacts positively to geopolitical stress.
Gold is not an "insurance" sector.
And Gold is not simply the anti-Dollar argument for those who hate the Dollar.
Gold is a GROWTH sector.
It represents the inexorable diversification of the World's Central Bank reserves away from ANY one Empire Currency and towards more fair and balanced currency baskets, reflecting the reality of modern world trade.
More importantly, Gold represents the inexorable rise of a true bourgeosie, a consuming middle class, in that one-half of the World which has not had one before. That one-half of the World corresponds very closely with those countries and regions which have been Gold-centric and Gold-loving since the days of the cavemen: China, India, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.
And re my feelings on currency markets, which have also not changed in over a decade - although more and more market participants Worldwide seem to agree with me nowadays:
We need a coordinated worldwide Tobin Tax to discourage risky currency speculation.
We need Worldwide much lower leverage limits on currency trading, which would almost exclusively affect the biggest players, not midsize ones.
We need to shine the limelight on exactly who is participating in the currency trading "dark pools" around the world. Surely, someone can discover and publish this information, so there is proof of Who is Doing What to Whom. Maybe they will be called on the carpet by world leaders and be forced to explain themselves.
The lives and fortunes of the entire World population are being impacted by relatively few deep-pocketed and bullying entities.
Gold is actually one of the primary keys to a more Progressive World, as well as a more Conservative one.
As the Stateless Currency, it represents a fairer, more balanced, and more open World Currency Regime.
In fact, it represents the possibility of consensus and reconciliation between "North" and "South," between countries which want to preserve the wealth they already have and countries which need more wealth as they continue towards industrialization and modernism.
We need a brand-new kind of dialogue about Gold - and about currencies and commodities in general.
And in terms of India, China, the Middle East, Africa or anywhere else Gold is part of the Greater Culture, I would suspect that Charlie Munger's disgracefully insulting and provocatively callous comments will likely cause a strong backlash against the Cultural Imperialism that seeks to replace millennia of established Cultural norms with a "we know what's best for you" attitude, especially as touted by Ugly American barbarians.
You may or may not be right. I believe you are wrong, but that is what makes horse races.
My comment referred to the WGC's just-released stats for Gold demand from India in calendar year 2012, which you referenced.
Look at those stats, and you will see that they reflect nothing more and nothing less than the late-winter into spring Gold merchants' strike and getting back to normal afterwards.
The stats do NOT reflect any major change in Indian Gold buying patterns going forward. In fact, they reflect MAKING UP some of the dislocations the Strike caused in the remainder of the year.
Why don't you interview someone from the WGC? You will see that my interpretation is the correct one, at least at this point in time.
Silver Wheaton Positioned To Rise 35% By 2014 [View article]
Dazed,
And once again: The London Olympics.
The entire World is going to work very hard to see that Europe is not embroiled in a European Summer of rioting similar to or even worse than last year's Arab Spring, when we are about to stage the first Olympics in 64 years in what is still the World's foremost financial hub.
The Short side needs to absorb the above and imprint it on its collective brain.
Silver Wheaton Positioned To Rise 35% By 2014 [View article]
This is now the 98th or so similar article SA has "granted" Gold and Silver Bulls in the past month.
The major Gold and Silver stocks have lost 50, 60, even 70 percent of their shareholder value in literally a few short months. They are now at their lowest relative prices to the underlying metals in, by some calculations, 30 or 40 years. The rout has been based on derivatives and skewing "tehcnicals" to BOO! out less sophisticated holders.
We have endured periods like this before. But rarely so early in the calendar year. The main culprit was the Indian gold merchants' strike, which essentially wiped out a quarter of a year's Gold buying. Silver was skewed for the ride.
I do not have a stake in SLW, so I am not "talking my book." But one would hope ALL the major XAU, TSX Gold, and HUI components would make up ALL of the shareholders' value they have lost by the end of this year, as the Gold and Silver markets return to normal.
The percentage of people over age 65 who are working is at a record high, with over 1/3 of men and over 1/4 of women aged 65-69 holding jobs. Of those 75 years old and over, 1 in 9 men and 1 in 20 women are employed. Meanwhile, the percentage of people younger than 64 with jobs has fallen, with those aged 25-54 down most. "This aging-but-not-yet-aged segment of the baby boomer class can’t afford to retire," says economist David Rosenberg. [View news story]
Once again, bad information on who Baby Boomers are.
Baby Boomers are aged 48-66 in 2012.
President Obama, Mitt Romney, John Boehner, and Hillary Clinton are all Boomers, as are the vast majority of those in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein, Bob Diamond, and most top bankers are Boomers. So are most top corporate executives and most top media executives.
The vast majority of Boomers believe it is pretty disgusting to camouflage these facts and try to promote an entirely different standard for the 99 percent plus of Boomers who are not in this elite than the standard which applies to Boomers in the fortunate less than one percent.
Ray Dalio explains the concept of a beautiful deleveraging and why the U.S. is in one, but the EU, not so much. He expects the ECB will ultimately print money and produce another big rally, "but this is a tougher time to be very confident about that scenario." An "uncivilized" man, Dalio remains a fan of gold, recommending most have 10% of their assets in the metal. [View news story]
If even SA allows comical digs at Charlie Munger, it means that particular bugaboo is gone.
Let's hope this gets some worldwide headlines, because it should mean another leg up for Gold and Gold Stocks in the week ahead.
I think a modest World Growth Agenda WILL be announced, however, much faster than the Uber-Bears would like.
Once again - everyone needs to think about this - is it mind-bogglingly dangerous if the London Olympics are held with Europe on the boil with rioting.
And if Austerity via Currency goes much further, THAT could mean another round of rioting in the Middle East and Africa. The Naira at all-time lows against Emperor Dollah! Dollah! Dollah! is literally THE formula for another breakout of terror in the Nigerian Delta. And if you thought the cutoff of Libyan Oil was bad, any cutoff of Nigerian Oil is twice as bad.
This is the time of year South African workers get restive, too - which always leads to NUM activity.
And I don't think anyone really wants more chaos in Latin America - which also tends to be highly correlated with a Dollar that overwhelms everyone else's currency.
It's just lucky for the world the Indian population is so well-behaved. But a too-weak Rupee is still perhaps the most dangerous phenomenon of all.
The WGC prediction for the fall in Gold demand from India in 2012 reflects the - what was it? eleven weeks? - of the gold merchants' strike and the 2-3 additional weeks it has taken them to get back to anything near normal activities.
13 out of 52 weeks is a 25% reduction
In other words, this is now in the rear-view mirror, not the mirror into the future.
It amazes me that so many financial commentators - who, one would think, are good at math - have not figured out what the "reduced Indian outtake for 2012" really means.
I am rolling my eyes as I'm typing this. (Yes, I am capable of rolling my eyes and typing at the same time - but not rolling my eyes, typing, and chewing gum.)
Silver: ETFs And 5 Miners Valuated For Direction [View article]
The Ninnies really are close to burning down the whole house - i.e. the whole world - now.
In this corner, JPM and those in its nexus. (Not their survival. Just their annual bonuses and temporary stock prices.)
In the other corner, everyone else in the world!
I dunno. Such a hard decision to make.
Meanwhile, Cramer, Defender of DOGworld, came very close to having a massive stroke on air tonight, IMO - only the second time we have ever seen that. And some of the rest of them aren't looking much better. Green complexions, voices breaking like bar mitzvah boys.
The difference between now and 2008 is that in 2008, world leaders might not have known any better. The banks said - a little bit more, just a little bit more - and the world said, you're cutting it close, but OK, one last time.
There really is no need for that this time around.
All it will take is a little healthy censorship.
In the US media. On Fleet Street. At Zero Hedge. Threaten anyone now prone to scream Fire! in a crowded theater with whatever the heck you have to threaten them with. No Pet Hamster should be sacred, when the survival of the world economy is at stake.
Now for the mundane: PM stocks are now at their lowest ratios to the underlying metals since Leakey's Lucy was a bond trader in the Great Rift valley. And that was a long time ago.
Therefore, the risk-reward is now overwhelmingly clear, is it not? No matter how many CNBC'ers go berserk on the air.
Silver: ETFs And 5 Miners Valuated For Direction [View article]
Every little hedge fund in the JPM nexus has mobilized its Botnet.
When cornered, snarl like a cur.
I repeat: If JPM and those in its nexus wish to get out of this with the least possible damage, the way to do it is to COMPROMISE with Gold and Silver Bulls, not act maliciously by rote.
We want "free and open markets," or we want computer games aiding the very few with the deepest pockets and the closest ties to financial media sponsors.
CNBC is acting even more irresponsibly than it did in 2008. Fleet Street - Murdochville - is, of course, off the charts.
The difference this time is that a good part of the World is trying to trade - and propagandize - against their shenanigans.
So let us see what we will see.
Gold sector leaders certainly cannot bleep around any longer: Come out forcefully pushing the role of Gold as the Stateless Currency and Mediating Currency, divorced from short-term Currency Wars and corrupt Currency traders.
We shouldn't have to go through this nonsense over and over whenever there's a Three Treasury Note Auction week.
Oversold Monday Bounce [View article]
The vast majority of members of the Senate and House, most senior bankers and corporate executives, and most leaders of major media companies are Baby Boomers. We Boomers, currently aged 48-66, are in what are normally the highest earning and highest achieving age bracket iin American life.
That 99 percent or so of all Boomers have suffered the past couple of decades - along with younger and older Americans - is an important untold tale of our recent American experience.
Dollar And Sense: Can Oil Turn Around In June? Here's What History Says [View article]
Historically, this is a weak time of year for Brent stocks, post their dividends. They tend to start to improve in September, although the very best performance usually begins again in January.
It's true, however, that this year is skewed because of geopolitics and events in Europe. No one is really sure what will happen with the embargo and how it might affect the stocks versus the underlying commodity.
Many believe the Oil Tanker stocks are beginning to look very attractive after being in the doghouse the past several years. Oil - and LNG - routes of trade are becoming longer and convoluted, as traditional patterns have already been badly disrupted. For instance, Venezuela is now speeding up its shipments to China and elsewhere in Asia and even to - not from - the Middle East. These are brand-new routes and potentially very beneficial to the shippers.
Oversold Monday Bounce [View article]
Extremist Supply-siders gave exactly the wrong advice to Candidate McCain in 2008, and they are giving exactly the wrong advice to both candidates now.
We Baby Boomers, aged 48-66 in 2012, make up one-third of the US population and by far its strongest voting bloc.
And in general, we could care less about temporary gasoline prices or other at this point very mild inflationary pressures.
We mostly care about two things: A higher stock market, since we - not the "new generation" of Facebooker Millennials - are still the majority of individual and small institutional investors and traders. . And a recovery in housing prices, since we are overwhelmingly homeowners.
Aid to small business is also nice, since we're the largest bloc of small business owners. And we do favor the Republican agenda on the market: keep capital gains taxes as low as possible and also encourage multinationals to repatriate profits with various sweeteners, in return for earmarking a substantial portion of those repatriated profits to create more domestic jobs.
Oversold Monday Bounce [View article]
But this time, it is an even worse idea than per usual.
Pretty much everyone in the world who participates in or even just follows PM markets knows that investigated in any responsible way, JPM's problems are going to lead straight to The Largest Silver Short Position in World History and the various Herculean efforts that have been needed to prevent its blowing up.
The upcoming JPM hearings and the scandal upon scandal upon scandal they are likely to provoke means that JPM and those in its extended nexus should now be working hard to BLUNT the effect of all their swaps and derivatives and somersaults and trapeze stunts which involve the interaction of currencies, bonds, and precious metals.
Even in a dread Three Auction Week.
The Gold Bubble Is Leaking: First Quarter Supply And Demand Update [View article]
Anyone depending on backward-looking stats is looking at the Gold market through a backward-looking lens.
That is simply not good trading.
The Facebook Gold Rally [View article]
Once again, you are entitled to your opinions. So am I. So is the WGC. So is Charlie Munger. And so are the Indian people.
Currency is clearly the dog - and the DOG - that wags the tails of all other markets now.
Everyone knows where I stand on both problems in currency markets and on Gold. My view of Gold is NOT that of much of the Gold establishment, if one can say there still is one, in the US and UK. But it jibes, I believe, with what most of the rest of the World - people who actually like Gold - think about Gold.
Gold is not a "Fear" sector, though it sometimes reacts positively to geopolitical stress.
Gold is not an "insurance" sector.
And Gold is not simply the anti-Dollar argument for those who hate the Dollar.
Gold is a GROWTH sector.
It represents the inexorable diversification of the World's Central Bank reserves away from ANY one Empire Currency and towards more fair and balanced currency baskets, reflecting the reality of modern world trade.
More importantly, Gold represents the inexorable rise of a true bourgeosie, a consuming middle class, in that one-half of the World which has not had one before. That one-half of the World corresponds very closely with those countries and regions which have been Gold-centric and Gold-loving since the days of the cavemen: China, India, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.
And re my feelings on currency markets, which have also not changed in over a decade - although more and more market participants Worldwide seem to agree with me nowadays:
We need a coordinated worldwide Tobin Tax to discourage risky currency speculation.
We need Worldwide much lower leverage limits on currency trading, which would almost exclusively affect the biggest players, not midsize ones.
We need to shine the limelight on exactly who is participating in the currency trading "dark pools" around the world. Surely, someone can discover and publish this information, so there is proof of Who is Doing What to Whom. Maybe they will be called on the carpet by world leaders and be forced to explain themselves.
The lives and fortunes of the entire World population are being impacted by relatively few deep-pocketed and bullying entities.
Gold is actually one of the primary keys to a more Progressive World, as well as a more Conservative one.
As the Stateless Currency, it represents a fairer, more balanced, and more open World Currency Regime.
In fact, it represents the possibility of consensus and reconciliation between "North" and "South," between countries which want to preserve the wealth they already have and countries which need more wealth as they continue towards industrialization and modernism.
We need a brand-new kind of dialogue about Gold - and about currencies and commodities in general.
The Facebook Gold Rally [View article]
The Facebook Gold Rally [View article]
You may or may not be right. I believe you are wrong, but that is what makes horse races.
My comment referred to the WGC's just-released stats for Gold demand from India in calendar year 2012, which you referenced.
Look at those stats, and you will see that they reflect nothing more and nothing less than the late-winter into spring Gold merchants' strike and getting back to normal afterwards.
The stats do NOT reflect any major change in Indian Gold buying patterns going forward. In fact, they reflect MAKING UP some of the dislocations the Strike caused in the remainder of the year.
Why don't you interview someone from the WGC? You will see that my interpretation is the correct one, at least at this point in time.
Silver Wheaton Positioned To Rise 35% By 2014 [View article]
And once again: The London Olympics.
The entire World is going to work very hard to see that Europe is not embroiled in a European Summer of rioting similar to or even worse than last year's Arab Spring, when we are about to stage the first Olympics in 64 years in what is still the World's foremost financial hub.
The Short side needs to absorb the above and imprint it on its collective brain.
Silver Wheaton Positioned To Rise 35% By 2014 [View article]
The major Gold and Silver stocks have lost 50, 60, even 70 percent of their shareholder value in literally a few short months. They are now at their lowest relative prices to the underlying metals in, by some calculations, 30 or 40 years. The rout has been based on derivatives and skewing "tehcnicals" to BOO! out less sophisticated holders.
We have endured periods like this before. But rarely so early in the calendar year. The main culprit was the Indian gold merchants' strike, which essentially wiped out a quarter of a year's Gold buying. Silver was skewed for the ride.
I do not have a stake in SLW, so I am not "talking my book." But one would hope ALL the major XAU, TSX Gold, and HUI components would make up ALL of the shareholders' value they have lost by the end of this year, as the Gold and Silver markets return to normal.
The percentage of people over age 65 who are working is at a record high, with over 1/3 of men and over 1/4 of women aged 65-69 holding jobs. Of those 75 years old and over, 1 in 9 men and 1 in 20 women are employed. Meanwhile, the percentage of people younger than 64 with jobs has fallen, with those aged 25-54 down most. "This aging-but-not-yet-aged segment of the baby boomer class can’t afford to retire," says economist David Rosenberg. [View news story]
Baby Boomers are aged 48-66 in 2012.
President Obama, Mitt Romney, John Boehner, and Hillary Clinton are all Boomers, as are the vast majority of those in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein, Bob Diamond, and most top bankers are Boomers. So are most top corporate executives
and most top media executives.
The vast majority of Boomers believe it is pretty disgusting to camouflage these facts and try to promote an entirely different standard for the 99 percent plus of Boomers who are not in this elite than the standard which applies to Boomers in the fortunate less than one percent.
Ray Dalio explains the concept of a beautiful deleveraging and why the U.S. is in one, but the EU, not so much. He expects the ECB will ultimately print money and produce another big rally, "but this is a tougher time to be very confident about that scenario." An "uncivilized" man, Dalio remains a fan of gold, recommending most have 10% of their assets in the metal. [View news story]
Let's hope this gets some worldwide headlines, because it should mean another leg up for Gold and Gold Stocks in the week ahead.
I think a modest World Growth Agenda WILL be announced, however, much faster than the Uber-Bears would like.
Once again - everyone needs to think about this - is it mind-bogglingly dangerous if the London Olympics are held with Europe on the boil with rioting.
And if Austerity via Currency goes much further, THAT could mean another round of rioting in the Middle East and Africa. The Naira at all-time lows against Emperor Dollah! Dollah! Dollah! is literally THE formula for another breakout of terror in the Nigerian Delta. And if you thought the cutoff of Libyan Oil was bad, any cutoff of Nigerian Oil is twice as bad.
This is the time of year South African workers get restive, too - which always leads to NUM activity.
And I don't think anyone really wants more chaos in Latin America - which also tends to be highly correlated with a Dollar that overwhelms everyone else's currency.
It's just lucky for the world the Indian population is so well-behaved. But a too-weak Rupee is still perhaps the most dangerous phenomenon of all.
The Facebook Gold Rally [View article]
Do the math!
The WGC prediction for the fall in Gold demand from India in 2012 reflects the - what was it? eleven weeks? - of the gold merchants' strike and the 2-3 additional weeks it has taken them to get back to anything near normal activities.
13 out of 52 weeks is a 25% reduction
In other words, this is now in the rear-view mirror, not the mirror into the future.
It amazes me that so many financial commentators - who, one would think, are good at math - have not figured out what the "reduced Indian outtake for 2012" really means.
I am rolling my eyes as I'm typing this. (Yes, I am capable of rolling my eyes and typing at the same time - but not rolling my eyes, typing, and chewing gum.)