Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Thanks again for your efforts. Good luck with pneumonia. Treat it carefully, and avoid the Jack Daniels in the pm, as alcohol may cause/exacerbate acid reflux that can worsen (or even precipitate) pneumonia.
I am sorry to be off-subject, but the above is from experience.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Fully agree with the ".. certain banks .." theory. The manipulators may well engineer several sharp drops (like this week's) followed quickly by sharp recoveries, to set the stage that allows them to exit at the top after traders become conditioned not to sell into weakness.
On Jun 18 07:13 AM MKW wrote:
> I have to disagree with you, Dave... There is one potential stimulus > to move the market higher - a certain large bank's secondary. Said > bank has been so active with the late afternoon explosions in SPY > that I think they have a lot of chits to call in. It might only be > a ferocious, three-day rocket flight (like 1/2/02 to 1/6/02), but > I think people discount the risk of a super-quick jam up back to > S&P 950 at their own peril. After that, I don't know were the > floor is.
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Dave, thanks again for your insights. The market is way ahead of fundamentals, even under the most optimistic, but still realistic, scenario.
The TARP-fueled trading desks must be sitting on enormous unrecognized gains, which they hope to reallze by unloading on their gullible victims. They have punished the short hedge funds so badly, that these funds no longer have the nerve to pull the trigger and initiate a sell-off. This means that the trading desks are the only ones who shall determine when to sell-off, and I doubt that they shall ring a bell at the top.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Dave, Thanks for all your great postings, and don't worry about not posting. Medical science has greatly advanced, and Hopkins is amongst the best in the world. Keep up the faith and God bless Francine and you.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Dave, I sure hope your health crisis is on the way to successful resolution. God Bless you and yours.
Good to see you back at blogging and thanks for the great insights. IMHO, market is fully valued and has priced-in expectations for a moderate economic recovery in the Fall. Sideways for now, until economic future trends become more clear.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
I fully agree with your opening statement, that what initiated the 2003 rally was monetary excess, and the Fed is now implementing the same strategy.
However, there is a limit to how often and how much you can keep pumping up an economy with debt and monetary excess, and I suspect that after two back-to-back bubbles, the third will prove less durable and less sustainable, assuming it takes off in the first place, which is doubtful.
The amount of distortion suffered by the underlying real economy keeps growing. As the Fed or the government continue to pick winners and losers, allocate capital, and allocate losses and rewards, all in arbitrary fashion; the system gets closer to a centrally planned economy, and farther from a market driven economy. History has shown that centrally planned economies are unsuccessful, so another distortive bubble is likely to result in a weaker economy.
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Thanks David. Regarding replacing GM with Apple or Google in the dow, it only matters for the tourists.
I don't see any positive fundamentals. Government has taken over the economy and doing the spending, borrowing, asset allocation, and reward allocation that are normally undertaken by free market forces. They are picking unproductive losers in the financial sector as winners, whilst turning the most productive elements in society into losers, as they will have to pay for the subsidies being heaped upon the incompetents.
With the dire long-term outlook of a new form of centrally-planned crony capitalism , I've taken the recent rally as an opportunity to book some attractive gains, and will book more if the opportunity arises. I expect to be a net buyer again if and when S&P500 drop below 710, which I expect will occur when the markets recover from the shock and awe of Da Boyz, as even the latter may run for cover.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Like the above posters, I too am holding long equities, but have been incrementally cashing in gains on a portion of the stocks I bought near the recent market lows. With each incremental move up, I sell off an increment and book some gains. I expect the fundamentals will dictate another big leg down regardless of cheerleading, possibly by summer; but prudence dictates maintaining a solid core of good dividend stocks just in case I am wrong.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
"The Treasury sold $57 billion in bonds while the Fed bought $33 billion."
NBR's Suzie and other msm told us that the treasury auction was a success, and reassured us that China still has an unslakable thirst for our safe haven treasuries. So I am puzzled that the fed had to "buy" more than half. Perhaps a whiff of things to come.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Dave, thanks for the great data summary and charts.
"We’re much overbought but that doesn’t seem to be slowing bulls down and you just have to stay out of the way....". Overbought, yes, but why stay out of the way? Personally, I've been feeding the hungry bull some stocks which had gotten too far ahead of their fundamentals, and I expect to re-purchase the same more cheaply within a few weeks, after we hear of their earnings and probable dividend cuts.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Yes, David, I am beginning to believe in the existence of "Da Boyz". They must have friends in high places, otherwise the latest toxic asset relief plan would not have been engineered to guarantee them profits. For paper work reduction, perhaps they should just give us the address in Greenwich, CT to mail our tax checks to.
Anyway, back to the markets. Once we accept "Da Boyz" theory, we just need to piggy back on their shennanigans to make some profits too, so we can afford to pay them our taxes. Since they don't tell us what they're up to, we just have to treat it as one more facet of the market's psychology. Personally, I've been taking profits slowly but surely during their spikes, and expect at some point, perhaps next week, perhaps next month or in May, they will own more overpriced stocks than they wish to keep and will start a selling spree (to the chagrin of their govt buddies).
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Thanks for the usually great summary. Short-term, I expect some more upside before the end of the month, and hope to continue taking some profits, whilst keeping a solid core of equities in case I am wrong about the longer term, which I still see as negative for some time.
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
David, as always, an excellent and informative article.
Out of curiosity, I clicked on your link for the novel word "sheeple" to see its "formal definition", and was appalled see: ".... elete group." "To accept the group mentaility....." One would have hoped that those who presume to post an on-line dictionary would first learn to spell!
Thanks. Your articles and analysis are always succinct and informative, and the witty notes add zest to the dry data.
".....when things do turn around, China may emerge as the leading economic power in the world much sooner than anyone expected. Is that possible?......". Well, it depends when "anyone" expected. For several years now, I've been telling my friends that, barring political instability or war, I expect China to become the leading economic power by 2020. Now it seems it may happen even sooner, given how quickly our leaders are messing up our economy with desperate measures to sustain impossible consumption, support inept bankers and irresponsible consumers, punish savers, and discourage creative enterepreneurs.
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
I am sorry to be off-subject, but the above is from experience.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
On Jun 18 07:13 AM MKW wrote:
> I have to disagree with you, Dave... There is one potential stimulus
> to move the market higher - a certain large bank's secondary. Said
> bank has been so active with the late afternoon explosions in SPY
> that I think they have a lot of chits to call in. It might only be
> a ferocious, three-day rocket flight (like 1/2/02 to 1/6/02), but
> I think people discount the risk of a super-quick jam up back to
> S&P 950 at their own peril. After that, I don't know were the
> floor is.
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
The TARP-fueled trading desks must be sitting on enormous unrecognized gains, which they hope to reallze by unloading on their gullible victims. They have punished the short hedge funds so badly, that these funds no longer have the nerve to pull the trigger and initiate a sell-off. This means that the trading desks are the only ones who shall determine when to sell-off, and I doubt that they shall ring a bell at the top.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Good to see you back at blogging and thanks for the great insights. IMHO, market is fully valued and has priced-in expectations for a moderate economic recovery in the Fall. Sideways for now, until economic future trends become more clear.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
However, there is a limit to how often and how much you can keep pumping up an economy with debt and monetary excess, and I suspect that after two back-to-back bubbles, the third will prove less durable and less sustainable, assuming it takes off in the first place, which is doubtful.
The amount of distortion suffered by the underlying real economy keeps growing. As the Fed or the government continue to pick winners and losers, allocate capital, and allocate losses and rewards, all in arbitrary fashion; the system gets closer to a centrally planned economy, and farther from a market driven economy. History has shown that centrally planned economies are unsuccessful, so another distortive bubble is likely to result in a weaker economy.
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
I don't see any positive fundamentals. Government has taken over the economy and doing the spending, borrowing, asset allocation, and reward allocation that are normally undertaken by free market forces. They are picking unproductive losers in the financial sector as winners, whilst turning the most productive elements in society into losers, as they will have to pay for the subsidies being heaped upon the incompetents.
With the dire long-term outlook of a new form of centrally-planned crony capitalism , I've taken the recent rally as an opportunity to book some attractive gains, and will book more if the opportunity arises. I expect to be a net buyer again if and when S&P500 drop below 710, which I expect will occur when the markets recover from the shock and awe of Da Boyz, as even the latter may run for cover.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
NBR's Suzie and other msm told us that the treasury auction was a success, and reassured us that China still has an unslakable thirst for our safe haven treasuries. So I am puzzled that the fed had to "buy" more than half. Perhaps a whiff of things to come.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
"We’re much overbought but that doesn’t seem to be slowing bulls down and you just have to stay out of the way....". Overbought, yes, but why stay out of the way? Personally, I've been feeding the hungry bull some stocks which had gotten too far ahead of their fundamentals, and I expect to re-purchase the same more cheaply within a few weeks, after we hear of their earnings and probable dividend cuts.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Anyway, back to the markets. Once we accept "Da Boyz" theory, we just need to piggy back on their shennanigans to make some profits too, so we can afford to pay them our taxes. Since they don't tell us what they're up to, we just have to treat it as one more facet of the market's psychology. Personally, I've been taking profits slowly but surely during their spikes, and expect at some point, perhaps next week, perhaps next month or in May, they will own more overpriced stocks than they wish to keep and will start a selling spree (to the chagrin of their govt buddies).
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Out of curiosity, I clicked on your link for the novel word "sheeple" to see its "formal definition", and was appalled see:
".... elete group."
"To accept the group mentaility....."
One would have hoped that those who presume to post an on-line dictionary would first learn to spell!
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]
".....when things do turn around, China may emerge as the leading economic power in the world much sooner than anyone expected. Is that possible?......". Well, it depends when "anyone" expected. For several years now, I've been telling my friends that, barring political instability or war, I expect China to become the leading economic power by 2020. Now it seems it may happen even sooner, given how quickly our leaders are messing up our economy with desperate measures to sustain impossible consumption, support inept bankers and irresponsible consumers, punish savers, and discourage creative enterepreneurs.