Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012? [View article]
Ignoring all the hype and complex analysis, and looking simplistically at a long-term chart suggests that S&P at about 750 +/- falls nicely on a smooth trend curve.
Since things revert to their mean, my guess (and only a guess) is that the stock market will oscillate around 750, between 600 and 900 on the S&P500 for the next two years. Occasional outbursts of wild optimism or pessimism may take it out of this range on either side, but my guess is that such passionate outbursts will be brief, on the order of a few weeks each.
Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012? [View article]
Since things revert to their mean, my guess (and only a guess) is that the stock market will oscillate around 750, between 600 and 900 on the S&P500 for the next two years. Occasional outbursts of wild optimism or pessimism may take it out of this range on either side, but my guess is that such passionate outbursts will be brief, on the order of a few weeks each.
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