Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Dave, Thanks for all your great postings, and don't worry about not posting. Medical science has greatly advanced, and Hopkins is amongst the best in the world. Keep up the faith and God bless Francine and you.
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Thanks David. Regarding replacing GM with Apple or Google in the dow, it only matters for the tourists.
I don't see any positive fundamentals. Government has taken over the economy and doing the spending, borrowing, asset allocation, and reward allocation that are normally undertaken by free market forces. They are picking unproductive losers in the financial sector as winners, whilst turning the most productive elements in society into losers, as they will have to pay for the subsidies being heaped upon the incompetents.
With the dire long-term outlook of a new form of centrally-planned crony capitalism , I've taken the recent rally as an opportunity to book some attractive gains, and will book more if the opportunity arises. I expect to be a net buyer again if and when S&P500 drop below 710, which I expect will occur when the markets recover from the shock and awe of Da Boyz, as even the latter may run for cover.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Like the above posters, I too am holding long equities, but have been incrementally cashing in gains on a portion of the stocks I bought near the recent market lows. With each incremental move up, I sell off an increment and book some gains. I expect the fundamentals will dictate another big leg down regardless of cheerleading, possibly by summer; but prudence dictates maintaining a solid core of good dividend stocks just in case I am wrong.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
"The Treasury sold $57 billion in bonds while the Fed bought $33 billion."
NBR's Suzie and other msm told us that the treasury auction was a success, and reassured us that China still has an unslakable thirst for our safe haven treasuries. So I am puzzled that the fed had to "buy" more than half. Perhaps a whiff of things to come.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Dave, thanks for the great data summary and charts.
"We’re much overbought but that doesn’t seem to be slowing bulls down and you just have to stay out of the way....". Overbought, yes, but why stay out of the way? Personally, I've been feeding the hungry bull some stocks which had gotten too far ahead of their fundamentals, and I expect to re-purchase the same more cheaply within a few weeks, after we hear of their earnings and probable dividend cuts.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Yes, David, I am beginning to believe in the existence of "Da Boyz". They must have friends in high places, otherwise the latest toxic asset relief plan would not have been engineered to guarantee them profits. For paper work reduction, perhaps they should just give us the address in Greenwich, CT to mail our tax checks to.
Anyway, back to the markets. Once we accept "Da Boyz" theory, we just need to piggy back on their shennanigans to make some profits too, so we can afford to pay them our taxes. Since they don't tell us what they're up to, we just have to treat it as one more facet of the market's psychology. Personally, I've been taking profits slowly but surely during their spikes, and expect at some point, perhaps next week, perhaps next month or in May, they will own more overpriced stocks than they wish to keep and will start a selling spree (to the chagrin of their govt buddies).
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Thanks for the usually great summary. Short-term, I expect some more upside before the end of the month, and hope to continue taking some profits, whilst keeping a solid core of equities in case I am wrong about the longer term, which I still see as negative for some time.
I'll suggest the Yen is strong because Japan manufactures many products that the rest of the world wants to buy, while consuming less of the rest of the world's output than they produce and export.
On Jan 12 11:52 AM secmaven wrote:
> And Japan's currency is the strongest in the world and getting stronger > by the day!
Dennis Gartman: Go Long Infrastructure, Short Everything Else [View article]
FCX have already cancelled their dividend entirely. I haven't checked PCU recently, but suspect they will, at least, reduce it.
On Dec 28 06:22 PM jegan ;-) wrote:
> Relating to 'Confusion's' question above. Although I like too like > Gartman's comments, his advice does seem to bounce around a lot. > One week it's 'go long of gold', next week 'I wouldn't touch gold > with a ten foot pole'. My advice is listen to what he has to say, > but unless you are a member of his newsletter, don;t follow his advice. > > > I'm curious why everyone that hears Obama's pledge for infrastructure > jumps on the SLX, or more commonly URE (Proshares real estate). Not > only did he propose an infrastructure buildout, which means bridges > and buildings, but an increased funding of broadband internet. <br/> > > Sometimes I feel like the 'Lone Ranger' here, but it would seem to > me that copper would be the best infrastructure/broadba... play. > Not only has copper been creamed... Now trading at 1.25 from 4+... > But PCU and Freeport McMorran are two excellent companies. And both > pa reasonable dividends (I'd keep an eye on the divs for both as > my feeling is that divs are generally coming down the next two years > ). > > My point is that I don't care what you build... earth movers, cars, > electronics, power stations, bridges, homes, laptops, Mr. Coffees, > refrigerators... etc... etc.... They all use copper. Not all of them > use cement or steel. > > jegan
Dennis Gartman: Go Long Infrastructure, Short Everything Else [View article]
I doubt that the steel demand for all the new bridges and tunnels will make up for the decline in demand due to fewer new petrochemical facilities, power plants, mining projects, industrual buildings, office buildings, malls, casinos, cruise ships, cars, trucks, etc. There is a capacity overhang in all these areas that has to work itself off, and many projects around the world that consume steel are being put on hold.
Ditto for other infrasturucture commodities.
Thus, I believe the infrastructure bandwagon (like all bandwagons) has been over-rated.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
I don't see any positive fundamentals. Government has taken over the economy and doing the spending, borrowing, asset allocation, and reward allocation that are normally undertaken by free market forces. They are picking unproductive losers in the financial sector as winners, whilst turning the most productive elements in society into losers, as they will have to pay for the subsidies being heaped upon the incompetents.
With the dire long-term outlook of a new form of centrally-planned crony capitalism , I've taken the recent rally as an opportunity to book some attractive gains, and will book more if the opportunity arises. I expect to be a net buyer again if and when S&P500 drop below 710, which I expect will occur when the markets recover from the shock and awe of Da Boyz, as even the latter may run for cover.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
NBR's Suzie and other msm told us that the treasury auction was a success, and reassured us that China still has an unslakable thirst for our safe haven treasuries. So I am puzzled that the fed had to "buy" more than half. Perhaps a whiff of things to come.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
"We’re much overbought but that doesn’t seem to be slowing bulls down and you just have to stay out of the way....". Overbought, yes, but why stay out of the way? Personally, I've been feeding the hungry bull some stocks which had gotten too far ahead of their fundamentals, and I expect to re-purchase the same more cheaply within a few weeks, after we hear of their earnings and probable dividend cuts.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Anyway, back to the markets. Once we accept "Da Boyz" theory, we just need to piggy back on their shennanigans to make some profits too, so we can afford to pay them our taxes. Since they don't tell us what they're up to, we just have to treat it as one more facet of the market's psychology. Personally, I've been taking profits slowly but surely during their spikes, and expect at some point, perhaps next week, perhaps next month or in May, they will own more overpriced stocks than they wish to keep and will start a selling spree (to the chagrin of their govt buddies).
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Economic Themes for 2009 [View article]
On Jan 12 11:52 AM secmaven wrote:
> And Japan's currency is the strongest in the world and getting stronger
> by the day!
Dennis Gartman: Go Long Infrastructure, Short Everything Else [View article]
On Dec 28 06:22 PM jegan ;-) wrote:
> Relating to 'Confusion's' question above. Although I like too like
> Gartman's comments, his advice does seem to bounce around a lot.
> One week it's 'go long of gold', next week 'I wouldn't touch gold
> with a ten foot pole'. My advice is listen to what he has to say,
> but unless you are a member of his newsletter, don;t follow his advice.
>
>
> I'm curious why everyone that hears Obama's pledge for infrastructure
> jumps on the SLX, or more commonly URE (Proshares real estate). Not
> only did he propose an infrastructure buildout, which means bridges
> and buildings, but an increased funding of broadband internet. <br/>
>
> Sometimes I feel like the 'Lone Ranger' here, but it would seem to
> me that copper would be the best infrastructure/broadba... play.
> Not only has copper been creamed... Now trading at 1.25 from 4+...
> But PCU and Freeport McMorran are two excellent companies. And both
> pa reasonable dividends (I'd keep an eye on the divs for both as
> my feeling is that divs are generally coming down the next two years
> ).
>
> My point is that I don't care what you build... earth movers, cars,
> electronics, power stations, bridges, homes, laptops, Mr. Coffees,
> refrigerators... etc... etc.... They all use copper. Not all of them
> use cement or steel.
>
> jegan
Dennis Gartman: Go Long Infrastructure, Short Everything Else [View article]
Ditto for other infrasturucture commodities.
Thus, I believe the infrastructure bandwagon (like all bandwagons) has been over-rated.