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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Buying VIX Calls As A Portfolio Hedge [View article]
    Very interesting. Need to check this out further.
    May 23 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Best Options Strategies, According To Academia [View article]
    Good article. Selling OTM puts has worked very well for a few years now. But current markets have run up, so we switched to buying puts in April/12 and that has also worked very well. Just closed some today for 2-3x returns.
    May 23 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe rapidly deteriorates, the Stoxx 50 -3%, led by Italy, -3.8%, and Spain, -3.2%. The euro goes bidless, sliding under $1.26 for the first time since August 2010. S&P 500 -1.1%.  [View news story]
    Amazing market day ... Asia down 1-2%, EU down 2-3% .... US down 1.5% until the stick save into the last couple of hours and US finishes up.
    May 23 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Is Ready For A Buying Frenzy [View article]
    tw4u,
    OK so 08/09 and 00/01 can never happen again? Got it. But isn't that what all the stocks always go up forever types said then too? Time will tell, but that's not a bet most would make.
    May 22 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury ETF Rally Threatens Stocks [View article]
    So who is buying Treasuries. Likely very very little from small investors. But plenty from central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and other large investors who can and probably will hold to maturity. They are a lot less concerned about making money and more concerned about getting their money back.
    May 22 09:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    Yep for the vast majority of lazy and uninformed investors out there, which is probably most of the individual investors, index funds make a lot of sense. Of course for those individual investors willing to put in the time and effort, which is a very small minority, they maybe can outperform.
    May 22 09:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market In Trouble? [View article]
    Don't think a piece of crap like UVXY is predictive of anything. The real VIX maybe, but not these extremely poorly designed VIX related ETF's and ETN's which do a pretty poor job of anything expect making the funds money and perhaps a few big professional traders.
    May 22 09:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Deposit Guarantee, Increased ECB Role On Table [View article]
    Interesting conjecture. One has to think it has to get much worse in the EU before Germany totally caves in. But rumors will drive markets up an down for months to come yet. More borrowing cannot be a viable solution to too much existing debt, but the EU and US politicians either don't have the brains or the guts to honestly start the real type of structural fixes that would make a difference over time.
    May 22 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Royal Dutch Shell Belongs In Your Portfolio [View article]
    OT,
    OK, thanks for the reply and guesstimates. Our guesstimate is oil to maybe $75-80 lows between now and year-end and US markets at least re-test the 2011 lows. Oil is already darn close to $90 now and the world marco headwinds look to be getting worse by the day now. Looking like the US$ is going to keep moving up with all the world macro concerns. Got to guess that RDS.B goes lower, maybe back to $60 or even lower, with the rest of world markets. But likely would sell well OTM puts if RDS keep moving lower rather than try a share buy. Problem is that not much activity in the RDS puts, at least at this point anyway.
    May 22 09:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Is Ready For A Buying Frenzy [View article]
    J,
    In order to answer that type of question, one has to consider the overall investment environment and country and world macro conditions. In a normal environment, sure PE=11 and PEG=1.38 would be pretty reasonable. Is it a normal investment environment (do fundamentals even really matter right now)? With the Fed and central banks printing trillions and massively easing. With the federal government running $1.5 trillion annual deficits. Much of which is flowing through to corporate earnings. Are corporate earnings and near record corporate profit margins sustainable? Will declining markets drag even the multi-nationals share prices down? What happens if the big traders being prop desks, HFT boys, banks, etc. have to start liquidating their winners to cover losses on their ever increasing losers?

    Sure MSFT is a good company, but it is also trading at near decade high share prices and price ranges as well, excluding the dotcom bubble highs. .

    Would be willing to bet that MSFT moves to quite a bit lower price levels, such as $25 and down, before it moves significantly such as say $35-$40/share. But if you want to treat it as a LT investment and bet it will go much higher, then that's your call and your money. It's just not a bet that we would be willing to make with MSFT at about $30/share.
    May 22 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Testy Tuesday: All Better Or Just Bouncing? [View article]
    Bullish on BBY. Not a bet we would take.
    May 22 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Is Ready For A Buying Frenzy [View article]
    MS is overpriced at this point. Probably a buy on a major pullback, but not at current price.
    May 22 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts From The Front Line: Dr. Frankenstein's Europe [View article]
    Dr. V,
    It is not an intent to discredit anyone or any country. The question is always why citizens and/or government officials don't understand the "devil's bargains" they seem to always make. It's not really that difficult and presumably intelligent folks will not consistently make bad bargains that negatively affect themselves.

    It actually happens in the US vis-a-vis federal funding to states with all kinds of string attached. Numerous states have rejected various federal funding projects on multiple occasions. In general the federal government funds something like the first year or two and then sticks the states with the program costs forever after that. The states have wised up over time and many now reject those types of temporary ST funding as bad deals.

    One wonders why the EU countries have not been able to figure out such for themselves over time. As they have had quite a few years to do so?
    May 22 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal Bonds Provide Clues For Equity Investors [View article]
    Good link. Thanks for posting it.
    May 22 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alongside a wave of regulatory investigations hitting market sentiment this afternoon, former Greek PM Papademos tells Dow Jones preparations for Greece exiting the euro are being considered; the risk of leaving is real. Estimates of a cost of €500B-€1T underscore the magnitude of the consequences, he says.  [View news story]
    Yep runs on Greek, Portugal, Spanish, and Italian banks should start to increase week by week now.
    May 22 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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