The third day after the necessary precondition is the last opportunity for the “Big Momma” buy signal to trigger, and alas, despite the huge afternoon rally, it didn’t, . However, the market did enough selling earlier in the day to again trigger the precondition. So we have another 3 day window for the completed signal to trigger.
The market has also done enough now to qualify as a complex bottom, but Hal is still expecting a little backing and filling, with another possible retest of the Friday low, and never excludes the possibility something worse that a retest. Hence, since there are no hedges currently in place, he’s not opting out of putting some on again, possibly even at night using e-mini futures.
Also, Hal has initiated more detailed observation of some individual stocks, with the intent of buying if a buy signal is generated individually. These algos operate independently, and aren’t dependent on the triggering of the Big Momma signal. If any of these reach a certain level of profitability, a slightly better than break even stop will be put in. Historically, stocks exited on these stops most often generate another buy signal at lower levels during the formation of complex bottoms.
U-6 shows "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force". http://1.usa.gov/qKtfTW
"High taxes help the richest, too" asserts Cornell economics professor Robert Frank, as the increased public spending would "produce clear gains in satisfaction for the wealthy," such as better-maintained roads. And besides, what difference does it make it if you have a home that's 15,000 square feet or one that's 10,000? [View news story]
Tomas,
It is true that much poll data from sources that are demonstrably biased are frequently used to provide “concrete proof” of one view of an issue. I have seen this done repeatedly on SA. It is certainly good to be aware of kind of thing, and a good point to bring up regarding polls in general. But Gallup Corporation is not one of the those.
“To ensure his independence and objectivity, Dr. Gallup resolved that he would undertake no polling that was paid for or sponsored in any way by special interest groups such as the Republican and Democratic parties, a commitment that Gallup upholds to this day.”
I certainly don‘t want to convince you to use polls, but being one who uses and has used data sampling for many different purposes, I find well done polls to be a good place to start formulating hypotheses.
With 243,000 jobs created in January, the economy is starting to look more positive, which might be a big plus for Pres. Obama in the November election. Current forecasts for labor growth point toward an extremely close election, Nate Silver writes - one in which every monthly fluctuation above or below a threshold of 150K jobs created could matter. [View news story]
With 243,000 jobs created in January, the economy is starting to look more positive, which might be a big plus for Pres. Obama in the November election. Current forecasts for labor growth point toward an extremely close election, Nate Silver writes - one in which every monthly fluctuation above or below a threshold of 150K jobs created could matter. [View news story]
.Windsun,
The government has been doing this indirectly for years with tax incentives and loopholes in the tax laws. There have been times when this was a good thing, and times when it wasn’t. It’s a complex issue.
By the way, since your business is green energy, I’m curious as to if you have benefited at all from anything the government has done.
"High taxes help the richest, too" asserts Cornell economics professor Robert Frank, as the increased public spending would "produce clear gains in satisfaction for the wealthy," such as better-maintained roads. And besides, what difference does it make it if you have a home that's 15,000 square feet or one that's 10,000? [View news story]
Thomas,
Thanks for the good wishes.
I’m not surprised that I got responses questioning the validity of polls and polling data. Done poorly they prove nothing. There is a good explanation of the potential problems inherent in polling in this article:
This particular poll was done by one of the most well regarded polling organizations. Polling is their business, and that is how they make money. They use well designed sampling techniques, and they have no bias one way or the other.
This poll is just what it is, nothing more, nothing less. It’s a sampling of opinion of a populations overall satisfaction with there own healthcare system. The results are to be interpreted in the light of the potential sampling error, which was disclosed.
I agree that “affordable” is a bit of loose word, and I appreciated your point there. So let’s just restrict this discussion to the “quality of care” question. There is no need to rely on an opinion poll regarding this anyway, since, in fact, Canadian healthcare is cheaper. That is a simple fact, and I provided a link to information on that in my comment above.
These two populations are voicing opinion on two different entities, and that has to be taken into consideration as well. They are not comparing each other’s healthcare system.
And yes, the study is 9 years old . My own conclusion regarding this was that in the years since the study, the two healthcare systems have not changed in any kind radical fashion, so that if the poll was done today, the result would be within a few percent of what they were then.
O.K., I think you and I may be on common ground now.
Given those factors mentioned above, one has to come to some conclusion as to what the poll might indicate (but not necessarily prove), and logic and reason can aid in making this assessment.
The conclusion that I came to was simply that this data didn’t support demonizing Canadian healthcare, as the poll indicates that it does, in fact satisfy a large segment of the population.
If you don’t agree, that’s fine with me. I only intended to open a window and provide some food for thought.
Other data outside of this poll also indicates that on some key parameters, average lifespan and infant mortality, widely recognized as being indicative of quality of healthcare, the U.S. and Canada are quite comparable, with Canada having a slight edge. Canada has slightly better numbers here than does the U.S. Canada ranks 12th regarding lifespan, and the U.S. ranks 36th. Regarding infant mortality, Canada ranks 24th, and the U.S. ranks 34th. Here’s some info:
Is either system perfect? No, they obviously aren’t, as roughly half of each population is dissatisfied.
I see other posters in this thread have provided information about some aspects of Canadian healthcare showing clear need for improvement. As some of the information provided was several years old, I’d be interested to know if there has been any improvement since then.
Some of the information was about the need for some Canadians to travel to the U.S. to receive treatment. Certainly this situation is not optimum, and hopefully is being addressed. I’d like to point out that in the U.S., there is often need to travel long distances to receive specialized treatment, 100 miles or more is not uncommon. And yes, this is inconvenient. I know from experience.
By the way, years ago, I did manage to have a nasty fall in a fairly remote area in Canada, and spent several days in a little 4 bed hospital. I was the only client, the other beds were vacant, so it was quite a cushy experience. But this is just anecdotal, and counts for naught.
"High taxes help the richest, too" asserts Cornell economics professor Robert Frank, as the increased public spending would "produce clear gains in satisfaction for the wealthy," such as better-maintained roads. And besides, what difference does it make it if you have a home that's 15,000 square feet or one that's 10,000? [View news story]
Thomas, It’s no surprise that I’d see a rejection of the concept of polling after I posted this data.
The fact is, there ample evidence that Gallup provides that correlate with real world outcomes. From Wikipedia:
“Historically, the Gallup Poll has measured and tracked the public's attitudes concerning virtually every political, social, and economic issue of the day, including highly sensitive or controversial subjects. In 2005, Gallup began its World Poll, which continually surveys citizens in more than 140 countries, representing 95% of the world's adult population. General and regional-specific questions, developed in collaboration with the world's leading behavioral economists, are organized into powerful indexes and topic areas that correlate with real-world outcomes.”
Basically, the takeaway from the poll regarding “quality of care” is that people in both countries have comparable levels of satisfaction, and dissatisfaction. This is a simple concept. The logical conclusion here doesn’t translate into demonization of the Canadian system.
Also, the overall cost of Canadian healthcare in both dollars and as a percentage of GDP is less the cost of healthcare in the U.S. This includes revenue dollars from taxes contributed by the government. This is another simple fact. Check out “Cross Country Comparisons” in this article:
While you are at it, check out the other metrics presented in this article, and compare Canada with the U.S.
As for polling people with life threatening illness, I guess you can start with me, though I must caution you that this only amounts to anecdotal evidence.
I’m a double cancer survivor, and, amazingly, have a good prognosis despite the mistakes made by healthcare providers. The most blatant was an incomplete diagnosis by a facility owned by an LLC, whose primary partner was an oncologist who just happened to do the diagnosis. I could tell that he was quite eager to do my treatment, as he didn’t provide an unbiased view of the alternatives.
On top of that, I had to wait two months for the treatment because of the waiting line, all this time watching the tumor grow.
When I arrived for treatment, I was told that the referring doctor, who was supposed to assist, wouldn’t be there, and there also would be no substitute (I guess it was too close to Christmas). I was extremely uncomfortable about proceeding, and this was very stressful, but decided to go ahead because I had already waited so long.
The nurse tried to comfort me by saying, “Your doctor really doesn’t need to be here. We just invited him to assist as a thank you for his referral”. Yes, that’s exactly what she said. I wrote it down at the time, so I know. It was just a nice little kickback that would have unnecessarily added to the cost of the procedure.
As it turned out, the treatment provided did cure one cancer completely, but exacerbated the progress of the other, which was much more serious. I won’t share what I had to endure, other than I heard later that my doctor was concerned about keeping me alive long enough to be treated (had to wait for that one, too), and if I would survive the treatment. I knew that I might die, and did take opportunity to rewrite my last will and testament.
I managed make it through two stem cell transplants (using my own stem cells), and here I am, with a very good prognosis.
There was another similar incidence of the same kind of thing, however I don’t have time to relate it.
Again, this personal account is anecdotal, and I’m not presenting it as evidence. I’m sure you can find more isolated horror stories in both countries.
"High taxes help the richest, too" asserts Cornell economics professor Robert Frank, as the increased public spending would "produce clear gains in satisfaction for the wealthy," such as better-maintained roads. And besides, what difference does it make it if you have a home that's 15,000 square feet or one that's 10,000? [View news story]
I think it is time to take a take a look at a 2003 Gallup poll regarding healthcare in Canada, the U..S., and Great Britain:
Remember that the sampling error here is 3% (5% regarding Great Britain’s result).
The results show that Canadians have a level of satisfaction with the “quality of healthcare” in their country (52%) that is a bit higher than the level of satisfaction that Americans have with theirs (48%). It also shows that Canadians have a much higher level of satisfaction (57%) with the “availability of affordable healthcare” than Americans do (25%).
California regulators pass sweeping auto emission standards that include a mandate to have 1.4M electric and hybrid vehicles on state roads by 2025. The new regulations, adopted in a unanimous vote by the state Air Resources Board, require cars and light trucks sold in 2025 to emit 75% fewer smog-forming pollutants and reduce carbon dioxide by about a third. [View news story]
Wyostocks,
OK, but remember that you are not believing the entire world's scientific community. Best of luck.
California regulators pass sweeping auto emission standards that include a mandate to have 1.4M electric and hybrid vehicles on state roads by 2025. The new regulations, adopted in a unanimous vote by the state Air Resources Board, require cars and light trucks sold in 2025 to emit 75% fewer smog-forming pollutants and reduce carbon dioxide by about a third. [View news story]
California regulators pass sweeping auto emission standards that include a mandate to have 1.4M electric and hybrid vehicles on state roads by 2025. The new regulations, adopted in a unanimous vote by the state Air Resources Board, require cars and light trucks sold in 2025 to emit 75% fewer smog-forming pollutants and reduce carbon dioxide by about a third. [View news story]
Wyostocks,
Well it has already happened. If you read the articles that I provided links for, you have seen the data. That’s a fact, period.
But is it likely to continue? The vast majority of scientists investigating this have provided significant, scientifically valid evidence that it will. And as more and more (factual) data comes in, conclusions that the probability of global warming continuing is going higher.
I understand that the scientific data that is available, and the conclusions about what may happen may be in conflict with your beliefs. That is likely why you haven’t explored this subject in depth.
I’m only interested in providing good information for you so that you can be well informed. You can chose to ignore factual data and sound science. Many people do. I can provide you with many more links to studies and data if you like.
California regulators pass sweeping auto emission standards that include a mandate to have 1.4M electric and hybrid vehicles on state roads by 2025. The new regulations, adopted in a unanimous vote by the state Air Resources Board, require cars and light trucks sold in 2025 to emit 75% fewer smog-forming pollutants and reduce carbon dioxide by about a third. [View news story]
Wyostocks,
Found the article. It was not about a conclusive scientific study. Here’s a link:
Hal’S “Thoughts” As Of May 20, 2012 [View instapost]
The third day after the necessary precondition is the last opportunity for the “Big Momma” buy signal to trigger, and alas, despite the huge afternoon rally, it didn’t, . However, the market did enough selling earlier in the day to again trigger the precondition. So we have another 3 day window for the completed signal to trigger.
The market has also done enough now to qualify as a complex bottom, but Hal is still expecting a little backing and filling, with another possible retest of the Friday low, and never excludes the possibility something worse that a retest. Hence, since there are no hedges currently in place, he’s not opting out of putting some on again, possibly even at night using e-mini futures.
Also, Hal has initiated more detailed observation of some individual stocks, with the intent of buying if a buy signal is generated individually. These algos operate independently, and aren’t dependent on the triggering of the Big Momma signal. If any of these reach a certain level of profitability, a slightly better than break even stop will be put in. Historically, stocks exited on these stops most often generate another buy signal at lower levels during the formation of complex bottoms.
Hal’S “Thoughts” As Of May 20, 2012 [View instapost]
Hal’S “Thoughts” As Of May 20, 2012 [View instapost]
Is BLS Data Skewed? [View article]
Inflation, Easy Money And The Austrian School Of Economics [View article]
The stock market and commodities don't always go up in lockstep.
Check out the CRB index here: http://bit.ly/duZ1er
And the S&P 500 here: http://bit.ly/duZ1er
And a relative strength comparison between the two here: http://bit.ly/duZ1er
Also, the value of fixed income instruments (bonds) went up during the time commodity prices went down.
Here’s a chart of TLT (Ishares 20+ year U.S. Treasuries bond fund): http://bit.ly/duZ1er
"High taxes help the richest, too" asserts Cornell economics professor Robert Frank, as the increased public spending would "produce clear gains in satisfaction for the wealthy," such as better-maintained roads. And besides, what difference does it make it if you have a home that's 15,000 square feet or one that's 10,000? [View news story]
It is true that much poll data from sources that are demonstrably biased are frequently used to provide “concrete proof” of one view of an issue. I have seen this done repeatedly on SA. It is certainly good to be aware of kind of thing, and a good point to bring up regarding polls in general. But Gallup Corporation is not one of the those.
Here’s info from Wikipedia about Gallup:
http://bit.ly/xaOATX
And here’s a quote from that article:
“To ensure his independence and objectivity, Dr. Gallup resolved that he would undertake no polling that was paid for or sponsored in any way by special interest groups such as the Republican and Democratic parties, a commitment that Gallup upholds to this day.”
I certainly don‘t want to convince you to use polls, but being one who uses and has used data sampling for many different purposes, I find well done polls to be a good place to start formulating hypotheses.
With 243,000 jobs created in January, the economy is starting to look more positive, which might be a big plus for Pres. Obama in the November election. Current forecasts for labor growth point toward an extremely close election, Nate Silver writes - one in which every monthly fluctuation above or below a threshold of 150K jobs created could matter. [View news story]
With 243,000 jobs created in January, the economy is starting to look more positive, which might be a big plus for Pres. Obama in the November election. Current forecasts for labor growth point toward an extremely close election, Nate Silver writes - one in which every monthly fluctuation above or below a threshold of 150K jobs created could matter. [View news story]
The government has been doing this indirectly for years with tax incentives and loopholes in the tax laws. There have been times when this was a good thing, and times when it wasn’t. It’s a complex issue.
By the way, since your business is green energy, I’m curious as to if you have benefited at all from anything the government has done.
"High taxes help the richest, too" asserts Cornell economics professor Robert Frank, as the increased public spending would "produce clear gains in satisfaction for the wealthy," such as better-maintained roads. And besides, what difference does it make it if you have a home that's 15,000 square feet or one that's 10,000? [View news story]
Thanks for the good wishes.
I’m not surprised that I got responses questioning the validity of polls and polling data. Done poorly they prove nothing. There is a good explanation of the potential problems inherent in polling in this article:
http://bit.ly/yQyByY
This particular poll was done by one of the most well regarded polling organizations. Polling is their business, and that is how they make money. They use well designed sampling techniques, and they have no bias one way or the other.
This poll is just what it is, nothing more, nothing less. It’s a sampling of opinion of a populations overall satisfaction with there own healthcare system. The results are to be interpreted in the light of the potential sampling error, which was disclosed.
I agree that “affordable” is a bit of loose word, and I appreciated your point there. So let’s just restrict this discussion to the “quality of care” question. There is no need to rely on an opinion poll regarding this anyway, since, in fact, Canadian healthcare is cheaper. That is a simple fact, and I provided a link to information on that in my comment above.
These two populations are voicing opinion on two different entities, and that has to be taken into consideration as well. They are not comparing each other’s healthcare system.
And yes, the study is 9 years old . My own conclusion regarding this was that in the years since the study, the two healthcare systems have not changed in any kind radical fashion, so that if the poll was done today, the result would be within a few percent of what they were then.
O.K., I think you and I may be on common ground now.
Given those factors mentioned above, one has to come to some conclusion as to what the poll might indicate (but not necessarily prove), and logic and reason can aid in making this assessment.
The conclusion that I came to was simply that this data didn’t support demonizing Canadian healthcare, as the poll indicates that it does, in fact satisfy a large segment of the population.
If you don’t agree, that’s fine with me. I only intended to open a window and provide some food for thought.
Other data outside of this poll also indicates that on some key parameters, average lifespan and infant mortality, widely recognized as being indicative of quality of healthcare, the U.S. and Canada are quite comparable, with Canada having a slight edge. Canada has slightly better numbers here than does the U.S. Canada ranks 12th regarding lifespan, and the U.S. ranks 36th. Regarding infant mortality, Canada ranks 24th, and the U.S. ranks 34th. Here’s some info:
http://bit.ly/z0IxG2
http://bit.ly/xp87Qw
Is either system perfect? No, they obviously aren’t, as roughly half of each population is dissatisfied.
I see other posters in this thread have provided information about some aspects of Canadian healthcare showing clear need for improvement. As some of the information provided was several years old, I’d be interested to know if there has been any improvement since then.
Some of the information was about the need for some Canadians to travel to the U.S. to receive treatment. Certainly this situation is not optimum, and hopefully is being addressed. I’d like to point out that in the U.S., there is often need to travel long distances to receive specialized treatment, 100 miles or more is not uncommon. And yes, this is inconvenient. I know from experience.
By the way, years ago, I did manage to have a nasty fall in a fairly remote area in Canada, and spent several days in a little 4 bed hospital. I was the only client, the other beds were vacant, so it was quite a cushy experience. But this is just anecdotal, and counts for naught.
"High taxes help the richest, too" asserts Cornell economics professor Robert Frank, as the increased public spending would "produce clear gains in satisfaction for the wealthy," such as better-maintained roads. And besides, what difference does it make it if you have a home that's 15,000 square feet or one that's 10,000? [View news story]
The fact is, there ample evidence that Gallup provides that correlate with real world outcomes. From Wikipedia:
“Historically, the Gallup Poll has measured and tracked the public's attitudes concerning virtually every political, social, and economic issue of the day, including highly sensitive or controversial subjects. In 2005, Gallup began its World Poll, which continually surveys citizens in more than 140 countries, representing 95% of the world's adult population. General and regional-specific questions, developed in collaboration with the world's leading behavioral economists, are organized into powerful indexes and topic areas that correlate with real-world outcomes.”
Link: http://bit.ly/zv31oe
Basically, the takeaway from the poll regarding “quality of care” is that people in both countries have comparable levels of satisfaction, and dissatisfaction. This is a simple concept. The logical conclusion here doesn’t translate into demonization of the Canadian system.
Also, the overall cost of Canadian healthcare in both dollars and as a percentage of GDP is less the cost of healthcare in the U.S. This includes revenue dollars from taxes contributed by the government. This is another simple fact. Check out “Cross Country Comparisons” in this article:
http://bit.ly/xGBoJC
While you are at it, check out the other metrics presented in this article, and compare Canada with the U.S.
As for polling people with life threatening illness, I guess you can start with me, though I must caution you that this only amounts to anecdotal evidence.
I’m a double cancer survivor, and, amazingly, have a good prognosis despite the mistakes made by healthcare providers. The most blatant was an incomplete diagnosis by a facility owned by an LLC, whose primary partner was an oncologist who just happened to do the diagnosis. I could tell that he was quite eager to do my treatment, as he didn’t provide an unbiased view of the alternatives.
On top of that, I had to wait two months for the treatment because of the waiting line, all this time watching the tumor grow.
When I arrived for treatment, I was told that the referring doctor, who was supposed to assist, wouldn’t be there, and there also would be no substitute (I guess it was too close to Christmas). I was extremely uncomfortable about proceeding, and this was very stressful, but decided to go ahead because I had already waited so long.
The nurse tried to comfort me by saying, “Your doctor really doesn’t need to be here. We just invited him to assist as a thank you for his referral”. Yes, that’s exactly what she said. I wrote it down at the time, so I know. It was just a nice little kickback that would have unnecessarily added to the cost of the procedure.
As it turned out, the treatment provided did cure one cancer completely, but exacerbated the progress of the other, which was much more serious. I won’t share what I had to endure, other than I heard later that my doctor was concerned about keeping me alive long enough to be treated (had to wait for that one, too), and if I would survive the treatment. I knew that I might die, and did take opportunity to rewrite my last will and testament.
I managed make it through two stem cell transplants (using my own stem cells), and here I am, with a very good prognosis.
There was another similar incidence of the same kind of thing, however I don’t have time to relate it.
Again, this personal account is anecdotal, and I’m not presenting it as evidence. I’m sure you can find more isolated horror stories in both countries.
"High taxes help the richest, too" asserts Cornell economics professor Robert Frank, as the increased public spending would "produce clear gains in satisfaction for the wealthy," such as better-maintained roads. And besides, what difference does it make it if you have a home that's 15,000 square feet or one that's 10,000? [View news story]
http://bit.ly/AaLMRs
Remember that the sampling error here is 3% (5% regarding Great Britain’s result).
The results show that Canadians have a level of satisfaction with the “quality of healthcare” in their country (52%) that is a bit higher than the level of satisfaction that Americans have with theirs (48%). It also shows that Canadians have a much higher level of satisfaction (57%) with the “availability of affordable healthcare” than Americans do (25%).
California regulators pass sweeping auto emission standards that include a mandate to have 1.4M electric and hybrid vehicles on state roads by 2025. The new regulations, adopted in a unanimous vote by the state Air Resources Board, require cars and light trucks sold in 2025 to emit 75% fewer smog-forming pollutants and reduce carbon dioxide by about a third. [View news story]
OK, but remember that you are not believing the entire world's scientific community. Best of luck.
California regulators pass sweeping auto emission standards that include a mandate to have 1.4M electric and hybrid vehicles on state roads by 2025. The new regulations, adopted in a unanimous vote by the state Air Resources Board, require cars and light trucks sold in 2025 to emit 75% fewer smog-forming pollutants and reduce carbon dioxide by about a third. [View news story]
I meant to include this link in my last comment:
http://bit.ly/yys3Tf
California regulators pass sweeping auto emission standards that include a mandate to have 1.4M electric and hybrid vehicles on state roads by 2025. The new regulations, adopted in a unanimous vote by the state Air Resources Board, require cars and light trucks sold in 2025 to emit 75% fewer smog-forming pollutants and reduce carbon dioxide by about a third. [View news story]
Well it has already happened. If you read the articles that I provided links for, you have seen the data. That’s a fact, period.
But is it likely to continue? The vast majority of scientists investigating this have provided significant, scientifically valid evidence that it will. And as more and more (factual) data comes in, conclusions that the probability of global warming continuing is going higher.
I understand that the scientific data that is available, and the conclusions about what may happen may be in conflict with your beliefs. That is likely why you haven’t explored this subject in depth.
I’m only interested in providing good information for you so that you can be well informed. You can chose to ignore factual data and sound science. Many people do. I can provide you with many more links to studies and data if you like.
California regulators pass sweeping auto emission standards that include a mandate to have 1.4M electric and hybrid vehicles on state roads by 2025. The new regulations, adopted in a unanimous vote by the state Air Resources Board, require cars and light trucks sold in 2025 to emit 75% fewer smog-forming pollutants and reduce carbon dioxide by about a third. [View news story]
Found the article. It was not about a conclusive scientific study. Here’s a link:
http://tgr.ph/yP4ZIG
The thrust of the article was that decreasing solar activity could possibly provide a cooling effect.
And here’s a link showing what solar activity has done since then:
http://1.usa.gov/wn7tZV
As you can see, solar activity has increased substantially since the Telegraph article was written. That may contribute to global warming.